How to Make Better Decisions Under Uncertainty (Mental Models That Work)
“You cannot eliminate uncertainty — but you can train your mind to think better within it.”
🤯 Why Uncertainty Feels So Paralyzing
Uncertainty creates a mental freeze.
Why? Because the brain craves control and predictability.
And when we don’t have that, it activates:
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The amygdala (fear response)
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The default mode network (rumination)
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And an internal panic: “What if I’m wrong?”
But high performers don’t wait for perfect clarity — they optimize for action in chaos.
How? They use mental models. Let's break them down.
🔍 1. The Expected Value Model
What’s the upside x probability — minus downside x probability?
Even with incomplete information, you can estimate outcomes.
Example:
You’re unsure about switching careers.
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Upside: 2x income, higher satisfaction
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Probability: 60%
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Downside: Short-term instability
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Probability: 40%
Run the numbers. Don’t rely on feelings — quantify risk vs. reward.
📖 Inspired by: Decision theory, Daniel Kahneman’s “Thinking, Fast and Slow”
🧠 2. Bayesian Thinking
Update your beliefs as new data comes in.
Don’t marry your first guess.
Let new evidence adjust your priors.
Example:
You think someone dislikes you. But over time, they compliment your work and invite you to lunch.
→ A rational mind updates, not clings.
📖 Origin: Thomas Bayes, updated in behavioral economics.
🧭 3. Inversion Thinking
Instead of asking: “What should I do?”
Ask: “What would guarantee failure?”
This reverse logic eliminates bad decisions fast.
Example:
Want to build a trusted brand?
Avoid: Overpromising, inconsistency, ignoring your audience.
By avoiding stupidity, you increase clarity.
📖 Popularized by: Charlie Munger
⏳ 4. Regret Minimization Framework
Ask: “Will I regret this decision in 10 years?”
This model extends your timeline, detaching you from short-term fear.
Jeff Bezos used this to leave his job and start Amazon.
He imagined himself at 80, asking:
“Will I regret not trying?”
Answer: Yes.
So he took the leap.
📖 Source: Jeff Bezos, Princeton talk (2001)
🔁 5. OODA Loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act)
Don’t get stuck. Keep cycling through action.
Originally developed by military strategist John Boyd, it’s used by:
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Fighter pilots
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Entrepreneurs
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Crisis leaders
Key: Your first decision isn’t your last.
You decide, act, learn, re-adjust — fast.
📖 Source: John Boyd, Air Force colonel & strategist
💡 Bonus Model: Second-Order Thinking
Don’t just ask: “What happens next?”
Ask: “What happens after that?”
Example:
Taking a job only for the money might bring regret later.
What will this choice set up in 3–5 years?
📖 Source: Howard Marks, “The Most Important Thing”
🧠 Why Mental Models Work
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They replace emotion with structure
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They help you act despite uncertainty
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They’re repeatable — not reactive
Uncertainty won’t vanish.
But your brain can be trained to move through it.
“Strong decisions don’t need certainty — just clear thinking.”
💬 If you found this article helpful, share this with a friend or a family member 😉
📚 References & Sources
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Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow
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Boyd, J. (1987). OODA Loop Concept
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Bezos, J. (2001). Princeton Commencement Talk
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Munger, C. (1995). Poor Charlie's Almanack
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Clear, J. (2018). Mental Models to Make Better Decisions
Taleb, N. (2007). The Black Swan